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Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature
Author(s)
Monash University
Bo Wen
Monash University
Antonio Gasparrini
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Ben Armstrong
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Francesco Sera
University of Florence
Éric Lavigne
University of Ottawa
Shanshan Li
Monash University
Yuming Guo
Monash University
Ala Overcenco
Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection
Aleš Urban
Czech Academy of Sciences
Alexandra Schneider
Helmholtz Munich
Alireza Entezari
Hakim Sabzevari University
Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera
University of Bern
Antonella Zanobetti
Harvard University
Antonis Analitis
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
Ariana Zeka
Brunel University of London
Aurelio Tobı́as
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research
Baltazar Nunes
National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge
Barrak Alahmad
Harvard University
Bertil Forsberg
Umeå University
Carmen Íñiguez
Caroline Ameling
César De la Cruz Valencia
Danny Houthuijs
Do Van Dung
University of Bern
Dominic Royé
Ene Indermitte
Fatemeh Mayvaneh
Fiorella Acquaotta
Francesca de’Donato
Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar
Haidong Kan
Hanne Krage Carlsen
Hans Orru
Monash University
Ho Kim
Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă
Jan Kyselý
Joana Madureira
Joel Schwartz
Jouni J. K. Jaakkola
Klea Katsouyanni
Magali Hurtado‐Díaz
Martina S. Ragettli
Masahiro Hashizume
Mathilde Pascal
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho
Nicolás Valdés Ortega
Niilo Ryti
Noah Scovronick
Paola Michelozzi
Patricia Matus Correa
Patrick Goodman
Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva
Raanan Raz
Rosana Abrutzky
Samuel Osorio
Shih‐Chun Pan
Shilpa Rao
Shilu Tong
Souzana Achilleos
Trần Ngọc Đăng
Valentina Colistro
Veronika Huber
Whanhee Lee
Xerxes Seposo
Yasushi Honda
Yoonhee Kim
Yue Leon Guo
Monash University
Shanshan Li
Monash University
Yuming Guo
Monash University
Date Issued
1 de mayo de 2024
Type
Article
Volume
187
Series/Report No.
Environment International
Start Page
108691
End Page
108691
ISSN
0160-4120
1873-6750
Abstract
Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17-13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56-14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27-15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.
Keywords