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Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study
Author(s)
Monash University
Yao Wu
Monash University
Yuming Guo
National Health Research Institutes
Antonio Gasparrini
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Shilu Tong
Queensland University of Technology
Ala Overcenco
Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection
Aleš Urban
Czech Academy of Sciences
Alexandra Schneider
Helmholtz Munich
Alireza Entezari
Hakim Sabzevari University
Ana M. Vicedo‐Cabrera
University of Bern
Antonella Zanobetti
Harvard University
Antonis Analitis
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
Ariana Zeka
Brunel University of London
Aurelio Tobı́as
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research
Baltazar Nunes
National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge
Barrak Alahmad
Harvard University
Ben Armstrong
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Bertil Forsberg
Umeå University
Shih‐Chun Pan
National Health Research Institutes
Carmen Íñiguez
Universitat de València
Caroline Ameling
Universidade do Porto
César De la Cruz Valencia
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública
Christofer Åström
Fudan University
Danny Houthuijs
Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
Do Van Dung
University of Bern
Dominic Royé
Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
Ene Indermitte
University of Tartu
Éric Lavigne
Health Canada
Fatemeh Mayvaneh
Hakim Sabzevari University
Fiorella Acquaotta
Seoul National University
Francesca de’Donato
Regione Lazio
Shilpa Rao
Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Francesco Sera
Universidade do Porto
Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Haidong Kan
Fudan University
Hans Orru
Fudan University
Ho Kim
Seoul National University
Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă
Universidade de São Paulo
Jan Kyselý
Czech Academy of Sciences
Joana Madureira
Universidade do Porto
Joel Schwartz
Harvard University
Jouni J. K. Jaakkola
Oulu University Hospital
Klea Katsouyanni
Health Canada
Magali Hurtado‐Díaz
Universidade do Porto
Martina S. Ragettli
Health Canada
Masahiro Hashizume
The University of Tokyo
Mathilde Pascal
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho
Universidade de São Paulo
Nicolás Valdés Ortega
Universidad de Los Andes, Chile
Niilo Ryti
Oulu University Hospital
Noah Scovronick
Seoul National University
Paola Michelozzi
Regione Lazio
Patricia Matus Correa
Ewha Womans University
Patrick Goodman
Technological University Dublin
Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva
National Institute for Public Health and the Environment
Raanan Raz
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Rosana Abrutzky
Universidad de Buenos Aires
Samuel Osorio
Universidade de São Paulo
Trần Ngọc Đăng
Universidade de Santiago de Compostela
Valentina Colistro
Ewha Womans University
Veronika Huber
Ewha Womans University
Whanhee Lee
Ewha Womans University
Xerxes Seposo
Ewha Womans University
Yasushi Honda
Ewha Womans University
Yoonhee Kim
Ewha Womans University
Yue Leon Guo
National Health Research Institutes
Michelle L. Bell
Ewha Womans University
Shanshan Li
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research
Date Issued
1 de mayo de 2024
Type
Article
Volume
187
Series/Report No.
Environment International
Start Page
108712
End Page
108712
ISSN
0160-4120
1873-6750
Abstract
Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has a higher effect. We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
Keywords