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Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis
Author(s)
University of Padua
Tim Riffe
Ikerbasque
Maxi S. Kniffka
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Enrique Acosta
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Ben Armstrong
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Malcolm Mistry
Ca' Foscari University of Venice
Rachel Lowe
Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats
Dominic Royé
Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública
Masahiro Hashizume
Nagasaki University
Lina Madaniyazi
Nagasaki University
Chris Fook Sheng Ng
The University of Tokyo
Aurelio Tobı́as
Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research
Carmen Íñiguez
Universitat de València
Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera
University of Bern
Martina S. Ragettli
Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
Éric Lavigne
Health Canada
Patricia Matus Correa
Universidad de Los Andes, Chile
Nicolás Valdés Ortega
Universidad de Los Andes, Chile
Jan Kyselý
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Aleš Urban
Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Hans Orru
University of Tartu
Ene Indermitte
University of Tartu
Marek Maasikmets
Estonian Environmental Research Center (Estonia)
Marco Dallavalle
Helmholtz Munich
Alexandra Schneider
Helmholtz Munich
Yasushi Honda
University of Tsukuba
Barrak Alahmad
Harvard University
Antonella Zanobetti
Harvard University
Joel Schwartz
Harvard University
Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar
Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia
Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă
Babeș-Bolyai University
Ho Kim
Seoul National University
Whanhee Lee
Pusan National University
Michelle L. Bell
Korea University
Noah Scovronick
Emory University
Fiorella Acquaotta
University of Turin
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho
Universidade de São Paulo
Magali Hurtado‐Díaz
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública
Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública
Paola Michelozzi
Regione Lazio
Massimo Stafoggia
Regione Lazio
Francesca de’Donato
Regione Lazio
Shilpa Rao
Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Francesco Di Ruscio
Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Xerxes Seposo
Hokkaido University
Yuming Guo
Monash University
Shilu Tong
Queensland University of Technology
Pierre Masselot
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Antonio Gasparrini
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Francesco Sera
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Date Issued
11 de noviembre de 2024
Type
Article
Volume
8
Issue
6
Series/Report No.
Environmental Epidemiology
Start Page
e338
End Page
e338
ISSN
2474-7882
Abstract
Objectives: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. Methods: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 - 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. Results: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. Conclusions: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission.
Keywords