Meteorological factors, population immunity, and COVID-19 incidence: A global multi-city analysis
Author(s)
Tim Riffe
Maxi S. Kniffka
Enrique Acosta
Ben Armstrong
Malcolm Mistry
Rachel Lowe
Dominic Royé
Masahiro Hashizume
Lina Madaniyazi
Chris Fook Sheng Ng
Aurelio Tobı́as
Carmen Íñiguez
Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera
Martina S. Ragettli
Éric Lavigne
Patricia Matus Correa
Nicolás Valdés Ortega
Jan Kyselý
Aleš Urban
Hans Orru
Ene Indermitte
Marek Maasikmets
Marco Dallavalle
Alexandra Schneider
Yasushi Honda
Barrak Alahmad
Antonella Zanobetti
Joel Schwartz
Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar
Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă
Ho Kim
Whanhee Lee
Michelle L. Bell
Noah Scovronick
Fiorella Acquaotta
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho
Magali Hurtado‐Díaz
Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano
Paola Michelozzi
Massimo Stafoggia
Francesca de’Donato
Shilpa Rao
Francesco Di Ruscio
Xerxes Seposo
Yuming Guo
Shilu Tong
Pierre Masselot
Antonio Gasparrini
Francesco Sera
Date Issued
11 de noviembre de 2024
Type
Article
Volume
8
Issue
6
Start Page
e338
End Page
e338
Abstract
Objectives: While COVID-19 continues to challenge the world, meteorological variables are thought to impact COVID-19 transmission. Previous studies showed evidence of negative associations between high temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. Our research aims to fill the knowledge gap on the modifying effect of vaccination rates and strains on the weather-COVID-19 association. Methods: Our study included COVID-19 data from 439 cities in 22 countries spanning 3 February 2020 - 31 August 2022 and meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation). We used a two-stage time-series design to assess the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 incidence. For the exposure modeling, we used distributed lag nonlinear models with a lag of up to 14 days. Finally, we pooled the estimates using a random effect meta-analytic model and tested vaccination rates and dominant strains as possible effect modifiers. Results: Our results showed an association between temperature and absolute humidity on COVID-19 transmission. At 5 °C, the relative risk of COVID-19 incidence is 1.22-fold higher compared to a reference level at 17 °C. Correlated with temperature, we observed an inverse association for absolute humidity. We observed a tendency of increased risk on days without precipitation, but no association for relative humidity and solar radiation. No interaction between vaccination rates or strains on the weather-COVID-19 association was observed. Conclusions: This study strengthens previous evidence of a relationship of temperature and absolute humidity with COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no evidence was found that vaccinations and strains significantly modify the relationship between environmental factors and COVID-19 transmission.
Subjects