Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature
Author(s)
Bo Wen
Antonio Gasparrini
Ben Armstrong
Francesco Sera
Éric Lavigne
Shanshan Li
Yuming Guo
Ala Overcenco
Aleš Urban
Alexandra Schneider
Alireza Entezari
Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera
Antonella Zanobetti
Antonis Analitis
Ariana Zeka
Aurelio Tobı́as
Baltazar Nunes
Barrak Alahmad
Bertil Forsberg
Carmen Íñiguez
Caroline Ameling
César De la Cruz Valencia
Danny Houthuijs
Do Van Dung
Dominic Royé
Ene Indermitte
Fatemeh Mayvaneh
Fiorella Acquaotta
Francesca de’Donato
Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar
Haidong Kan
Hanne Krage Carlsen
Hans Orru
Ho Kim
Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă
Jan Kyselý
Joana Madureira
Joel Schwartz
Jouni J. K. Jaakkola
Klea Katsouyanni
Magali Hurtado‐Díaz
Martina S. Ragettli
Masahiro Hashizume
Mathilde Pascal
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho
Nicolás Valdés Ortega
Niilo Ryti
Noah Scovronick
Paola Michelozzi
Patricia Matus Correa
Patrick Goodman
Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva
Raanan Raz
Rosana Abrutzky
Samuel Osorio
Shih‐Chun Pan
Shilpa Rao
Shilu Tong
Souzana Achilleos
Trần Ngọc Đăng
Valentina Colistro
Veronika Huber
Whanhee Lee
Xerxes Seposo
Yasushi Honda
Yoonhee Kim
Yue Leon Guo
Shanshan Li
Yuming Guo
Date Issued
1 de mayo de 2024
Type
Article
Volume
187
Start Page
108691
End Page
108691
Abstract
Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979-2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17-13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56-14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27-15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.
Subjects