Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study
Author(s)
Yao Wu
Yuming Guo
Antonio Gasparrini
Shilu Tong
Ala Overcenco
Aleš Urban
Alexandra Schneider
Alireza Entezari
Ana M. Vicedo‐Cabrera
Antonella Zanobetti
Antonis Analitis
Ariana Zeka
Aurelio Tobı́as
Baltazar Nunes
Barrak Alahmad
Ben Armstrong
Bertil Forsberg
Shih‐Chun Pan
Carmen Íñiguez
Caroline Ameling
César De la Cruz Valencia
Christofer Åström
Danny Houthuijs
Do Van Dung
Dominic Royé
Ene Indermitte
Éric Lavigne
Fatemeh Mayvaneh
Fiorella Acquaotta
Francesca de’Donato
Shilpa Rao
Francesco Sera
Gabriel Carrasco‐Escobar
Haidong Kan
Hans Orru
Ho Kim
Iulian‐Horia Holobâcă
Jan Kyselý
Joana Madureira
Joel Schwartz
Jouni J. K. Jaakkola
Klea Katsouyanni
Magali Hurtado‐Díaz
Martina S. Ragettli
Masahiro Hashizume
Mathilde Pascal
Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho
Nicolás Valdés Ortega
Niilo Ryti
Noah Scovronick
Paola Michelozzi
Patricia Matus Correa
Patrick Goodman
Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva
Raanan Raz
Rosana Abrutzky
Samuel Osorio
Trần Ngọc Đăng
Valentina Colistro
Veronika Huber
Whanhee Lee
Xerxes Seposo
Yasushi Honda
Yoonhee Kim
Yue Leon Guo
Michelle L. Bell
Shanshan Li
Date Issued
1 de mayo de 2024
Type
Article
Volume
187
Start Page
108712
End Page
108712
Abstract
Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has a higher effect. We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0–7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0–7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0–7 and inter-day TV0–7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
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